Tequila & Agave Trends for 2027
The short answer
Tequila is still the base spirit of the American cocktail menu, and 2025 was the year its growth stopped. US tequila and mezcal supplier revenue fell 4.1% to $6.4 billion on volume that was essentially flat, tequila based drinks held about 41% of cocktail value, and the brands that grew were the ones priced to be the well pour, not the ones with a celebrity on the label. For an agave brand, 2027 will be a share game inside a category that is no longer lifting every bottle, fought on price position, on the paloma and tequila soda rather than the margarita alone, and on knowing the account before the visit.
Who this is for: founders, sales leaders and field reps at tequila and mezcal brands, and the distributors and buyers who carry them. Reading time about six minutes.
How big is the US tequila market going into 2027?
The Distilled Spirits Council's February 2026 briefing puts 2025 US tequila and mezcal supplier revenue at $6.4 billion, down 4.1%, on 32.1 million nine liter cases, down 0.3%. It is the second largest spirits category by revenue behind vodka ($7.0 billion) and ahead of American whiskey ($5.1 billion). Total US spirits revenue fell 2.2% to $36.4 billion, so tequila underperformed the market in dollars while holding volume.
Category, 2025 | Supplier revenue | Change | Volume (M 9L cases) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Vodka | $7.0B | −3.0% | 72.5 | −2.2% |
Tequila and mezcal | $6.4B | −4.1% | 32.1 | −0.3% |
American whiskey | $5.1B | −0.9% | 30.0 | −1.0% |
Pre mixed cocktails incl. RTDs | $3.8B | +16.4% | 85.6 | +17.1% |
Source: DISCUS Annual Economic Briefing, February 2026.
Flat volume and falling revenue means the category traded down inside itself. Across all spirits, the value tier grew 4.3% in revenue and 7% in volume while super premium fell 5.3% and high end premium fell 3.7%. DISCUS calls this price pressure rather than de premiumization, since high end and super premium still make up 58% of spirits revenue. Retail scan data tells the same story for agave: the top 20 agave brands fell 1.5% in 2025 while smaller brands outside the top 20 grew 28.5%, and mezcal fell 8.2% (Nielsen, via Mezcalistas).
On the supply side the boom has turned into a glut. Agave prices fell from peaks near 32 pesos per kilo to roughly 5 pesos by the start of 2026, and the industry is working through a surplus of finished tequila estimated at 100 to 200 million liters, a three to six month supply (Forbes, January 2026). Cheap agave lowers the cost of a 100% agave bottle, which is one reason value priced brands could grow while the category shrank.
What share of cocktails are made with tequila?
About four in ten. NIQ's Cocktail Sales Tracker measured tequila based drinks at 41.2% of all US on premise cocktail value in Q4 2024, up nearly nine points in a year, with tequila cocktails pulling almost double the velocity of vodka cocktails. On the consumer side, 45 to 46% of US cocktail drinkers name tequila their favorite base, ahead of flavored vodka and whiskey at roughly one in three each (CGA by NIQ, 2025 and April 2026).
The margarita is the reason, and the margarita has peaked. It is ordered by 54% of US cocktail drinkers and leads in nearly every state, but NIQ measured margarita dollar velocity down 16% year over year in Q4 2025, 6% fewer consumers choosing it in spring 2026 than a year earlier, and a 28% drop in margarita consumption among 21 to 34 year olds over two years. On premise tequila value was down 2% in the 12 months to mid April 2026. The margarita is aging with its audience: 57% of guests over 55 order it against 44% of younger guests.
The paloma and the ranch water are the growth serves. CGA lists the paloma among the cocktails with the highest returns per outlet on Sundays, and the tequila soda family (ranch water, tequila and soda, the Batanga with cola and lime) is where younger drinkers are moving when they leave the margarita. The tequila espresso martini is the crossover riff NIQ flagged for 2026.
Mezcal is a bar drink, not yet a volume category. Most mezcal sells above $60 a bottle, retail sales fell 8.2% in 2025, and the volume sits with a handful of brands (Del Maguey Vida, 400 Conejos, Ilegal). Its menu role is the smoky margarita, the mezcal negroni and the split base cocktail, which is where a mezcal brand should be pitching.
Which tequila brands are winning?
The value priced 100% agave brands and the one super premium name still growing. Six of the ten largest tequila brands shrank in 2025.
Rank | Brand | Owner | 2025 volume (M 9L cases) | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Proximo Spirits | 8.6 | −3.3% | |
2 | Don Julio | Diageo | 4.5 | +2.3% |
3 | 1800 | Proximo Spirits | 2.8 | −1.4% |
4 | Patrón | Bacardi | 2.7 | −5.3% |
5 | Lunazul | Heaven Hill | 2.3 | +29.9% |
6 | Gran Centenario | Proximo Spirits | 1.9 | −0.5% |
7 | Casamigos | Diageo | 1.9 | −19.8% |
8 | Espolòn | Campari Group | 1.9 | +3.9% |
9 | Hornitos | Suntory Global Spirits | 1.7 | −4.5% |
10 | Olmeca incl. Altos | Pernod Ricard | 1.5 | +2.1% |
Source: The Spirits Business Brand Champions 2026.
Lunazul passed two million cases for the first time on a value price and NBA partnerships, the biggest gain in the ranking. Casamigos posted the steepest decline and its lowest volume in five years, with US sales down 30.9% in Diageo's second half of 2025; Diageo is now pointing investment at lower shelf brands like Astral. Patrón lost third place to 1800 and is redesigning the bottle around a three ingredient message, after an additive free labeling dispute briefly suspended its export certificates in early 2025. Don Julio is the one super premium brand still growing, though Diageo says it lost category share. Espolòn grew on reposado while blanco slipped, and it remains the leading call brand in high volume US bars, where Union's order data shows Casamigos, Espolòn, Don Julio and Patrón together make up more than half of tequila sales and house or well tequila is 31% of tequila drinks sold.
The consumer is changing how they choose. Forbes' 2026 trend review describes premium buyers who now expect a reason to pay (an age statement, a NOM they recognize, an additive free process, a flavor they can describe) rather than a celebrity, and growing interest in traditional producers like Fortaleza, Cascahuín and El Tesoro. Cristalino has settled into a real style category led by Maestro Dobel, and RTDs (Cutwater, Cazadores cans) are recruiting new drinkers at the bottom of the ladder.
What should an agave brand do in 2027?
Pick a shelf and own it. The brands that grew had a clear price position: Lunazul as the 100% agave well pour, Don Julio as the premium call. The squeeze is landing on the mid tier that is neither. If the brand sits at $35 to $45, the field team needs an answer to "why you over the well" and "why you over Don Julio" in every account, and cheap agave means the well competitor can afford to get cheaper.
Sell the paloma and the tequila soda, not just the margarita. The margarita is a share fight now. The growth serves are the paloma, the ranch water and the tequila espresso martini, and younger guests are already there. A named tequila soda build on the menu is a placement the margarita list does not offer.
Know the account before the visit. 54% of cocktail drinkers still order a margarita, 53% would pay more for a named brand in it, and four brands own half the tequila poured in high volume bars. Winning means knowing which accounts pour a competitor in the well or on the skinny list, which have a mezcal cocktail and which do not, and who the beverage director is, then getting there with a build and a reason to switch. That is the information EveryShelf exists to put in the rep's hands before they walk in.
Frequently asked questions
Is tequila still growing in the US?
Not in dollars. 2025 tequila and mezcal supplier revenue fell 4.1% to $6.4 billion while volume held at 32.1 million cases (DISCUS). Value priced brands grew; super premium brands shrank.
What is the most popular tequila cocktail?
The margarita, ordered by 54% of US cocktail drinkers and the top cocktail in nearly every state, though its velocity fell 16% in Q4 2025 (NIQ).
What is the best selling tequila brand?
Jose Cuervo, at 8.6 million nine liter cases in 2025, followed by Don Julio at 4.5 million (The Spirits Business).
Why are agave prices falling?
Plantings made during the 2018 to 2022 boom matured at once. Prices fell from about 32 pesos per kilo to about 5, and the industry holds a surplus of 100 to 200 million liters of finished tequila (Forbes, January 2026).
Sources
The Spirits Business, Top 10 Best Selling Tequila Brand Champions 2026
NIQ, Riff Away: How Can Cocktail Creativity Fuel Spirits Growth, May 2025
NIQ, Getting the Recipe Right for the On Premise Cocktail Opportunity, April 2026
Hicork, Martini Rising as Margaritas Wane, July 2026 (NIQ BeverageTrak Q4 2025)
Drinks Digest, It's Official: The Margarita's Reign Is Over, August 2026
Forbes, Ten Major Trends Shaping the Tequila Industry in 2026, January 2026
Union OnPrem Insights, These 4 Tequila Brands Are Driving Half of the Category's On Premise Sales
Is your brand on the menu?
EveryShelf is the AI platform beverage brands use to find, win, and grow every account. A rep says what happened in the field; the platform writes the log, schedules the follow up and tells the team where to go next.
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